RailTex faxed word late Wednesday that it had reached an agreement with
Central Properties of Kokomo Indiana to acquire two rail lines for $14 mm. The
two lines are the Central Railroad of Indianapolis (CERA) and the Central
Railroad of Indiana. CERA is a 73-mile cluster of former PRR and NKP lines
around Kokomo IN while CIND is essentially the old NYC "James Whitcomb Riley"
double track main between Cincy and Indy, though CERA stops short of the
latter in Shelbyville, some 96 miles total. The two lines are connected by an
agreement with Conrail providing overhead rights for CIND between Shelbyville
and Frankfort. The two lines handled about 18,000 carloads in 1997 for a
density of 100 a mile. Track condition runs from FRA excepted to class 3, and
the 60 miles east from Shelbyville to Lawrenceburg is under embargo for track.
RTEX supplied a map with its notice, and there's an interesting link-up
between this new acquisition and its former DT&I line north of Cincy.
Moreover, CSX has signed an agreement with the City of Indianapolis to grant
access between shortlines for $100 a car. Recall RTEX owns the Indiana
Southern, a coal-hauling line extending south and west from Indy. From this it
would appear that RTEX is beginning to put together some regional systems,
much along the lines of the GNWR model.
RailAmerica has picked up another 51 miles for it's Michigan-based Saginaw
Valley Railway (SGVY) from CSX. it's as logical sale, if you look at a CSX
map. The SGVY and sister RAIL property Huron & Eastern occupy the "thumb" of
the Michigan Mitten whereas the CSX line being sold runs due east across the
base of the thumb.
Interestingly, both transactions are of the ilk foretold by GNWR President
Charles N. Marshall at a breakfast speech in Hershey PA this week. In his
remarks, Marshall, a former Conrail Executive, noted that post-merger CSX and
NS may well have too little traffic supporting too much infrastructure, and
that more consolidations were inevitable. Specifically, he said, shortlines
will grow by buying one another out and by picking up those class 1 branches
that "make more sense" as part of a regional carrier than they do as part of a
trunk system. The RTEX and RAIL transactions would seem to fit the mold.
Out west, BNSF is making some serious infrastructure commitments. A headline
on their website proclaims, "BNSF Plans Track Maintenance Blitz Between
Springfield and Memphis." The company is spending $14 mm (as much as RTEX did
for an entire railroad) over the last two weeks in June. The work schedule is
being compressed "to minimize impact on customers and communities" and will
see nearly 100,000 new wood and concrete ties installed. Also, 14 miles of
jointed rail will become continuous welded rail (CWR) with 1,200 thermite
"field welds." The whole process is being handled in a neighborly and
environmentally friendly way. A trip to the whole story at www.bnsf.com is
highly recommended.
On Monday the STB helped the UP cause by denying an appeal by DeBruce Grain
to reopen a complaint against the railroad because UP is up to date on car
orders. Moreover, it appears UP had been asking for certain documents from
DeBruce and they were not forthcoming, so the STB gave the customer till the
middle of this month to report on compliance. In a related development, the
STB denied Consol Mining's request to file now for standing in the Conrail
Merger. Consol for its part, said it had hoped to resolve its concerns about
rail access to its mines in Conrail's Mon valley coal region "out of court."
When it looked like the process was going on the rocks, Consol applied. As it
turns out, NS, CSX, and Consol made up so the filing request is moot.
Greenbrier has doubled its earnings for the fiscal second quarter ended
February 28, 1998 on 24% more revenue than 2Q97 and absent the $1.3 mm loss
from discontinued logistics operations a year ago. For the fiscal YTD,
earnings are up 65% on 15% more revenue. The manufacturing backlog as of
2/28/98 was 6,700 cars at $335 mm. To put this in context, GE Railcar's Mike
Calabucci told a Pennsylvania industry group last week that car orders will be
up slightly in 1998 over 1997 as buyers are replacing smaller cars with newer,
heavy-loading 286,000 lb. capacity cars. Calabucci also thinks order-books
will shrink somewhat in 1999 as the 286's enter service and the rails improve
car cycle times. Even at that, GBX has been upgraded to Market Outperform by
some rating services.
Recall my "NY abstains" remarks of a few weeks ago wherein we discoursed on
NY's propensity to take the opposite side of any issue, and the Conrail merger
was no exception. Well, change is in the wind. Some 37 companies that rely on
rail transportation - including a number of privately held shortlines -- have
joined an advocacy group called Transportation Advocates for Competition
(TRAC). This is a coalition of more than 700 local, state and national
associations, transportation organizations, shippers, suppliers and other
entities that are supporting the division of Conrail. Now if we can just get
the East of Hudson groups to settle down...
Railroad stock prices through April continued to lag the averages. My
unweighted market basket of equal dollars in each of 15 rail stocks was up
just 11% YTD vs. the S&P's 14.6%. The big winners are Canadian National (up
37.3%) and Kansas City Southern (43.7%). Of course, the latter's earnings are
more financial management than railroad, so CN is the clear winner across the
board. Several issues are actually down YTD. CSX is off a percent and a half,
Providence & Worcester is off slightly, and UNP is off ten percent from the
start. Happily both GNWR and WCLX have recovered from earlier losses.
The vendor market basket is down four names: Alcatel, Timken, Varlen, and
Wabash National. The goal here is to focus on companies whose major business
is supplying the freight railroads (and where there is overlap, the rail
transit group). Dropping the hybrids gives a lot better feel about the
industry without the potential for cross-subsidies or drains from other
fields. That being said, a market basket of the remaining ten companies is up
23% YTD vs. the S&P 14.6%. The big winners have been Johnston Car, Harmon, and
MotivePower Industries while the only real loser has been ABC Rail, off 12.5%
YTD. The more widely traded issues lagging the averages include Greenbrier (up
7.6%), Trinity (up 14%), and Westinghouse (up 9%).
Sing a Song of Safety? "The Railroaders," a band comprised of workers from
CSXT's Willard Shops have reworked some old rock songs to incorporate a safety
theme. Thus is the reincarnation of an earlier group called "Whiskey River"
and has been making the rounds playing their tunes at what CSX calls
"railroading socials." For what it's worth, Norfolk Southern's "Lawmen," a
group of NS policemen, has been playing and performing popular ditties for
years -- tapes and CDs are available.
--Roy Blanchard


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