Blanchard Railroad Week in Review, First Quarter 2022

The Railroad Week in Review:
First Quarter 2022

Week ending March 25
Crude oil prices continue to head north affecting everything from diesel fuel to animal feed to fertilizer. Manufacturing employment stronger — a leading indicator for increased carload freight volumes. The importance of staying ahead of your customers’ raw material trends.

Week ending March 18
Russian fertilizer export tonnage; potential effects of its loss to US ag business. Ditto on steel. Shipper adds cars to lease fleet to absorb suboptimal service; related comments from shipper on STB competitive access hearing.

Week ending March 11
CN in the news and more.

Week ending March 4
BNSF full-year freight revenue was up 11 percent to $10.6 billion on 10.1 million revenue units, up 6.9 percent. Each of the commodity groups posted full-year increases. Ukraine situation affecting cash prices for ag futures, coking coal, fertilizers. NIWX updates website, service offerings.

Week ending February 25
Zooming in on the STB pre-trial discussion on the proposed Amtrak Gulf Coast Service; Oberman really does his homework. Further thoughts on Railway Industry Agreement; tapping ASLRRA resources.

Week ending February 18
A discussion on the use of research to help railroads gain market share from the trucks; how to model truck all-in costs for better comps. Does the Railway Industry Agreement I mentioned last week still exist: a reader wonders whether "anybody in today’s Class I world, and for that matter at the STB, has even bothered to read the document much less be governed by it?"

Week ending February 11
Crude oil prices continue to head north affecting everything from diesel fuel to animal feed to fertilizer. Manufacturing employment stronger — a leading indicator for increased carload freight volumes. The importance of staying ahead of your customers’ raw material trends.

Week ending February 4
Comparing quarterly results of Class I railroads; UP shows particularly well. Surge of new freight car orders bodes well for the industry. STB’s proposed reciprocal switching regulation is causing quite a stir; no need to show “anti-competitive conduct," but... Why tracking the iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT) can be useful.

Week ending January 28
Dave Rosenberg on the slippage we see in the single-family housing sector; new buyers priced out of the market. Canadian National revenue increases 3% to C$3.8 billion, of which two thirds came from the merchandise carload franchise. Norfolk Southern freight revenue increases 11% to $2.9 bn even as revenue units drop 4% to 1.7 mm. Canadian Pacific freight revenues up a point to C$2 bn, revenue units down 10% to 655,600; double-digit volume hits in grain and auto exacerbated by 9% drops in coal and intermodal.

Week ending January 21
Competition: it's not just for railroads. Fourth quarter earnings for UP and CSX.

Week ending January 14
BNSF has suspended its Loading Origin Guarantees (LOGs) auctions for lumber and panel cars effective Monday, January 10, 2022; existing LOGs permits remain in effect. BNSF moved 10.1 million loads, up 7.4 percent, for FY2021; 15 of 17 commodity groups show gains. Pennsylvania's Reading & Northern Railroad posts record results for 2021 with particular strength in forest products and anthracite coal. Montana Rail Link is ending its 34-year lease arrangement with BNSF this year.

Week ending January 7
Supply chains, inflation, train speed; good news on steel; high price of natural gas and what it means for food costs.

THE BLANCHARD COMPANY
2041 Christian Street - Philadelphia PA 19146-1338 (215) 985-1110 voice - (215) 985-1446 fax
Roy Blanchard, rblanchard@rblanchard.com
Laura Blanchard, lblanchard@rblanchard.com