Blanchard Railroad Week in Review, Fourth Quater 2022

The Railroad Week in Review:
Fourth Quarter 2022

[No Week in Review December 30]

Week ending December 23
The importance of coming trends in carload volumes; how the so-called Dow Theory charts can help. Inflation and transportation demand.

Week ending December 16
NS share price performance in the context of revenue units; charts. Winchester & Western inks agreement to serve a new micro steel mill to be built in West Virginia; production to start 2025, NS the likely Class I beneficiary. Twin Cities & Western to receive state financial assistance to upgrade Sisseton Branch to 286. Aberdeen, Carolina & Western files to acquire the 104-mile NS Gulf-Charlottesville line it has leased for 30+ years.

Week ending December 9
Tuesday's Norfolk Southern Investor Day was a rousing success; I found the remarks mostly upbeat about doing a better job of walking the talk. NS is building trains more by destination than by type of freight; short lines can help by pre-blocking outbound cars. Watco customer-first theme; getting to Yes with the Class I for new moves.

Week ending December 2
Observations re Adriene Bailey RailTrends remarks; impact of financialzation on railroad performance. Ways for non-Class I railroads to accelerate car turns and reduce car hire with or without a strike. Economic outlook per Union Pacific; tea leaves pointing to a slower economy.

[No Week in Review November 25]

Week ending November 18
Cindy Sanborn departing NS as COO Dec 31; successor is Paul Duncan, currently Senior Vice President Transportation & Network Operations. Soybeans in the teens — why you should care. R.J. Corman lease/purchase for NS' 43-mile Raleigh-Fayetteville line effective next month.

Week ending November 11
BNSF third quarter freight revenue increased 16 percent to $6.7 billion on 2.4 million revenue units, down five percent; how FSC revenue makes results look better than they really are. The importance of the long-term view; how debt, demography, and productivity trends affect railroad results. Continuing decline in total railroad revenue units.

Week ending November 4
Why housing starts matter to lumber customers; other commodities possibly affected by declining housing starts. Pacific Harbor Lines wins ASLRRA President's Safety Award. You will note going forward an increased WIR focus on economic trends and how they are likely to affect future RR commodity carloads. Railroads, non-Class Is especially, must keep close tabs on what's happening in the next few weeks or months as opposed to the next year and beyond. The attached housing starts commentary gives you a taste of where we're going. Do let me know if you approve or disapprove.

Week ending October 28
Canadian National reported third quarter freight revenues increasing 27 percent year-over-year to C$4.4 billion; revenue units gained three percent to 1.5 million with RPU up 24 percent to C$2,972. Norfolk Southern saw freight revenues increase 17 percent to $3.3 billion though revenue units were down two percent to 1.7 million. Canadian Pacific in the third quarter moved 730,000 revenue units, up ten percent, bringing in freight revenue of C$2.3 billion, an increase of 19 percent.

Week ending October 21
Union Pacific Q3 revenues $6.1 billion, up 18 percent over the 2021 Q3 on 2.1 million revenue units, up three percent; robust revenue growth yields quarterly records for operating revenue, operating income. CSX third quarter total revenues $3.9 billion, up 18 percent; manifest carloads 40 percent of the total.

Week ending October 14
The third quarter of 2022 is now officially over; year-to-date revenue units through October 1 (week 39) decreased 2.1% YOY. Industrial chemicals overview. Using stock charts for industry and company insights as to carload traffic potentials.

Week ending October 7
Greetings: Progressive Railroading nominates 25 "rising stars" in the railroad industry; a sampling of skills, contributions, and goals. BNSF commits some $1.5 billion for construction of a brand new state-of-the-art railroad hub in Barstow, California; though largely intermodal, carload customers will benefit from faster throughput and fewer "touches" per revenue unit.

THE BLANCHARD COMPANY
2041 Christian Street - Philadelphia PA 19146-1338 (215) 985-1110 voice - (215) 985-1446 fax
Roy Blanchard, rblanchard@rblanchard.com
Laura Blanchard, lblanchard@rblanchard.com