Blanchard Railroad Week in Review, First Quarter 2023

The Railroad Week in Review:
First Quarter 2024

Week ending March 29
The question of railroad relevance again rears its ugly head; railroad senior management seems more rewarded for short-term results than long-term customer value. Financialization redux. Observations on the NS proxy battle. The role of AI in returning railroads to relevance in this increasingly technologically-driven environment. Railway Age Short Lines of the Year.

Week ending March 22
One way to gauge congestion on your connecting Class I railroads is to look at changes in cars on line; how to do it. The investor shift into cyclicals shares and away from tech shares could bode well for commodity carloads; steel, for example. Stock chart comparing tech and industrials.

Week ending March 15
How to use the business cycle to anticipate your customers’ demand for carloads of cyclical commodities. The relationships between and among the business cycle, manufacturing activity, and specific commodities coming to your railroad. Comparing carload commodity volumes today versus what they were a year ago.

Week ending March 8
Why lumber carloads may be off of it, even as builders are staying busy. Trends and outlooks in STCC 20 processed foods promising.

Week ending March 1
This week it's all about BNSF, framing the annual and quarterly numbers in Warren Buffett's observations on railroads in general and BNSF in particular. BNSF's financial performance was underwhelming, not surprising given the sorry state of the economy from a manufacturing and consumer durable goods viewpoint. Quarterly and annual results; how the various commodity groupings fared.

Week ending February 23
FRA shuts down Oklahoma's Blackwell Northern Gateway Railroad (BNGR) over a series of 49 CFR violations; FRA findings excerpts. Activist Ancora makes its case for NS management change; link to their 58-page slide deck.

Week ending February 16
Where and why reporter's piece on Ancora activist move against NS gets it wrong; what's right with NS. Jim Bowers wins top ASLRRA award for services rendered.

Week ending February 9
Short lines and regional railroads are particularly adept at first mile/last mile service; why moves run into trouble in Class I hands. "Precision agriculture" and fertilizer carload volumes. Home builder share pieces are up while STCC 24 carloads are down — makes no sense to me.

Week ending February 2
Manifest carloads for North America spike nicely in the closing weeks of 2023; Week 52 commodity lines showing double-digit increases. Why excessive turn times can hurt railroads' competitive advantage with leased equipment. Car supply outlook from Matt Elkott, railroad equipment analyst for TD Cowen.

Week ending January 26
Canadian National in Q4 handled 1.4 million revenue units, down a point, generating C$4.3 billion, down two percent; running a scheduled railroad gets top billing. CSX freight revenues increased three percent to $3.4 billion in Q4; lots of promises for better days to come. Union Pacific cranked out a one percent freight revenue gain to $5.8 billion on 2.1 million revenue units, a three percent revenue unit increase; Jim Vena hitting his stride.

Week ending January 19
Manifest carloads for North America spike nicely in the closing weeks of 2023; Week 52 commodity lines showing double-digit increases. Why excessive turn times can hurt railroads' competitive advantage with leased equipment. Car supply outlook from Matt Elkott, railroad equipment analyst for TD Cowen.

Week ending January 12
Counting carloads with shorl iines on both ends of a move with a Class I in the middle can inflate national shortline car counts; stripping out such double-counts. As the Class Is have become increasingly financialized, valuable "institutional knowledge" walks out the door; how the older heads can increase revenue carloads. How Anacostia's Northern Rail Lines add value to customer's logistics process.

Week ending January 5
Happy New Year, everybody. I think it will be better for the manifest carload franchise than what we had in 2023. Read on... Non-Class I railroad marketing accomplishments; ag and industrial on the North Shore, anthracite on the Reading & Northern. Gulf & Atlantic files to acquire another smallish Indiana property; STB says OK. Exactly how important are the non-Class I railroads in terms of economic benefit to the Class I roads; some interesting and revealing comps.

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Roy Blanchard, rblanchard@rblanchard.com
Laura Blanchard, lblanchard@rblanchard.com