Blanchard Railroad Week in Review, Third Quarter 2025

The Railroad Week in Review:
Third Quarter 2025

Week ending September 26
Why cardboard shipments are off; trends in boxcar ownership. Also affected is STCC 24 lumber and panel sector. The best-run short lines with the best growth patterns — traditionally stay ahead of the forest products curve.

Week ending September 19
NS and UP are launching a new domestic intermodal service; end points are KC and Louisville. "Watershed markets" explained; why important in UP/NS context. UP and NS have jointly filed their Form S-4 with the SEC covering the proposed merger; salient points and outtakes. Contrail Shared Assets parallels?

Week ending September 12
Continuing the thread of getting more business on your railroad, I think it's important to view the customer's order book through the lens of the general economic situation; charts. The 2026 Michigan State University Railway Management Certificate Program is now open for registration. Why Edelweiss Holdings seeks acquisitions with long-lasting performance; unlike the railroads, they eschew financialization.

Week ending September 5
Drilling down into the merchandise carload sector and how to increase share from the trucks; Downside of the financialization of the Class Is; first-mile/last-mile focus. Business surveys portend production turn-around; non-bulk merchandise carload volume trends say otherwise.

Week ending August 29
Warren Buffett has said no to any merger with CSX; Street puzzled by " unwillingness to pursue a merger with an eastern partner." Observations on BNSF-CSX intermodal operating agreement. Greg Abel role?

Week ending August 22
W&LE bought by Fortress sub. Using the ISM and similar reports to predict railroad traffic volumes. Feedback from my UP+NS merger comments last week.
Ancora moves against CSX.

Week ending August 15
Why the Class I landscape remains fluid; options for BNSF and CSX — opening gambit chessboard.
Could Berkshire just flat out buy CSX for cash and skip the formal STB merger process? Is the UP+NS
proposal truly to add value to the RR transportation product of is it more financialiazation — financial
engineering, if you will.

Week ending August 8
BNSF 2Q2025 YOY revenues unchanged at $5.7 billion. Revenue units rose slightly, 1.4%; the merchandise sector drifted south by nearly 2%. As for the proposed NS-UP merger, could Berkshire Hathaway buy CSX without merging it into BNSF? I'm going to say YES. BNSF ops performance charts.

Week ending August 1
Greetings Quarerly earnings calls for all five reporting Class Is. BNSF reports tomorrow. UP, NS formerly announce merger plans. Though they've announced their intentions, there are many slips twixt cup and lip.Furtger remarks at ths point are speculation. I will comment on what happens when it happens.

Week ending July 25
Herewith some of my musings on a Union Pacific - Norfolk Southern merger.
* On the plus side, the east-west reach would be compelling.
* The risks and regulatory hurdles could be formidable.
* The STB would face enormous political and shipper pressure to block any further consolidation.
* Mismatched terminal assets and differing IT systems could take years to reconcile.
* For now, the focus should remain on getting existing networks running at full throttle;
proper service still wins the day, regardless of the name on the locomotive.
* Lurking behind the headlines is the steady march toward financialization.
* Does a merger like UP–NS aim to build a stronger railroad, or just a stronger stock?
The customer has to come out on top when the dust settles.

Week ending July 18
Now that we're seeing the second quarter results — carload gains, improved margins, more revenue, increased earnings — it's time to start drilling down into the 10-Qs and find out what's really going on. Introducing BNSF's Shortline Select program, a strategic initiative that brings BNSF and a group of high-performing short line railroads into closer alignment. Stories about a possible UP-NS merger started heating up overnight. NS shares are up a few points today; UP shares less so.

Week ending July 11
Why balance sheets can be very useful when trying to determine the reasons a Class I railroad isn't performing the way one thinks it ought to be; clues for what to look for elsewhere in the filings. The STB's 2024 reciprocal switching rule has been struck down by the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals; a case of over-reaching.

[No Week in Review July 4]

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Roy Blanchard, rblanchard@rblanchard.com
Laura Blanchard, lblanchard@rblanchard.com