Blanchard Railroad Week in Review, Fourth Quarter 2025

The Railroad Week in Review:
Fourth Quarter 2025

Week ending December 26 (extra)
I put up the markers on WIR 2025, but enough has come to my attention I think running an Extra Section is in order. Imagine white flags on the lead unit. Why biggest question is whether they will actually create the service packages they propose or continue business as usual. What about the new competitive landscape portends for BNSF in particular? How to use ChatGPT to get facts, not factoids.

Week ending December 19
What if I were to take the other side and say, actually, the UP plus NS combination can really help the industry move into the 22nd century? Vena cutting through the UP bureaucracy early on. Putting up Rule 99 flags on WIR 2025.

Week ending December 12
Excerpts from the ASLRRA's Intent to participate in the UP+NS proceedings filed with the STB. Why I see great a possibility of new short lines being formed to fill in the gaps left by the merging railroads as they reduce redundant trackage miles. Florida's Seminole & Gulf embarks on an $18 million infrastructure upgrade. Coal seems to be giving nat gas a run for its money. Bascome Majors writes on "Four Key Themes for Rails" coming out of the 4Q Conference Season.

Week ending December 5
Excerpts of Letters to the STB all mentioning competition; STB requires applicants to demonstrate that competition is not reduced, and ideally enhanced. The central argument in the recent BNSF Petition for Review; ensure that the promised level of competition is genuinely available.

[No Week in Review November 28]

Week ending November 21
NSC and UNP shareholders vote overwhelmingly in favor of the proposed UNP-NSC merger; how institutional investors dominate trading and vote where higher share prices line their pockets. Reference to "The Machine" refers to the powerful algorithms that drive today's markets. Why this is. AAR weekly rail traffic summary reflects the general business softness seen elsewhere.

Week ending November 14
Signs of opposition to UP+NS are beginning to show themselves; Freight Rail Consumer Alliance states its opposition.How the Six Core Ten Tenets of PSR and have been "more honored in the breach than in the observance." Marty Oberman: "Given the magnitude and detail of the record, and the many professionals responsible for it, it is virtually impossible for outside improper political influences to distort the record."

Week ending November 7
BNSF 3Q2025 posts many positive YOY changes in the quarter. CN positioning to capitalize on the railroad's strengths to increase results. CPKC' results YTD reflect the steps this railroad is taking to build on its unique three country operatioin and to capitalize on its competitive advantage.

Week ending October 31
UNP and NSC share prices now moving in lock-step – See George Soros' Theory of Reflexivity." Operating metrics improving though rates of change in units and earnings barely cover the rate of inflation. CPKC and CN earnings notes next week, I have prepared a PDF of excerpts from Keith Creel's remarks re UP+NS on their call — available on request.

Week ending October 24
CN this week appointed Patrick Whitehead as Executive Vice-President and Chief Operating Officer, effective immediately; CEO Tracy Robinson sees change as reflecting CN's maturation of its operating plan and its willingness to align management structure with operational priorities. Using weekly stock charts to glean some inkling of where UNP shares might be headed post-merger.

Week ending October 17
UP and NS Proxy Statements; building a customer-oriented railroad vs building share prices of the railroad. CSX 2Q2025 results; kudos to Joe Hinrichs and an Anncora caveat.

Week ending October 10
BNSF Merger Position Paper makes their view of the UP-NS combo quite clear; I concur completely. STB filing requirements that should raise eyebrows. CPKC's Kreel: "We'll be a loud voice in the room" with our objections. Let the games begin. [position paper]

Week ending October 3
Ancora is at it again, this time at CSX, forcing CEO and Board changes to goose share price; outgoing CEO Joe Hiniichs deserves better than what he got. Tony Hatch telecast: "The Freight Rail Transcon Merger Story—So Far: A Virtual Salon;" Using UP+NS merger to end shortline "paper barriers."

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Roy Blanchard, rblanchard@rblanchard.com
Laura Blanchard, lblanchard@rblanchard.com